Why is my refund smaller this year?
This version shows a balance owed: $60,000 in wages with only $4,000 withheld. Raise the withholding to see how the result flips.
Enter your wages to see your estimate.
Federal income tax for tax year 2026, the return you file in 2027.
How the result is reached
| Step | Amount |
|---|
What would change it
| If you had | Result | Change |
|---|
Each row changes one input and keeps the rest the same.
An estimate for tax year 2026, not tax advice
Your real refund depends on your full return, so use this to plan, not to file.Not modeled in this estimate
This tool covers W-2 wages and other taxable income on a federal return. It uses the standard deduction and leaves out:
- Credits other than the child tax credit: earned income credit, credit for other dependents, retirement savings, education, child and dependent care, and energy credits.
- Itemized deductions, the extra standard deduction at 65 or older or if blind, and the 2025 to 2028 deductions for seniors, tips, overtime, and auto loan interest.
- Self-employment income and tax, rental income, Schedule K-1 income, taxable Social Security, and the qualified business income deduction.
- Alternative minimum tax and net investment income tax.
- State and local income tax. This is a federal estimate only.
If any of these apply to you, your refund can be higher or lower than shown.
Verified on October 8, 2026. Sources: IRS, Rev. Proc. 2025-32 (2026 inflation adjustments) (brackets, standard deductions, credit limits); 26 U.S.C. 24 (phase-out, refundable earned-income threshold); amounts from Rev. Proc. 2025-32 section 4.05 (child tax credit).
How to use it
- Pick your filing status: single, married filing jointly, head of household, or married filing separately.
- Enter your wages from W-2 box 1 and any other taxable income, such as interest or unemployment.
- Enter the federal tax withheld (W-2 box 2, all forms added together) and any estimated payments you made.
- Enter the number of children under 17 who have a Social Security number.
- Read your refund or balance owed, the steps that lead to it, and what would change it. Copy the result or a link.
Frequently asked questions
Why is my refund smaller than last year?
Usually because less tax was withheld, your income rose, or a credit shrank. Your refund is only the difference between what was withheld and the tax you owe.
How do I get a bigger refund next year?
Have more withheld by updating your W-4. In this example, $2,000 more withheld turns $1,020 owed into a $980 refund.
A refund is withholding minus tax
Your refund is not a bonus. It is the gap between the tax withheld from your pay and the tax you actually owe. Here a single filer's tax is $5,020 after a $16,100 standard deduction. With $4,000 withheld, the result is $1,020 owed. At $6,000 withheld, the same filer would get a $980 refund, a swing of $2,000.
Common reasons your refund shrinks
- Less tax was withheld, for example after a new W-4, a second job, or a raise that was not matched by higher withholding.
- Your income went up, and every extra $1,000 of wages adds about $120 of tax at the 12% rate.
- A credit shrank or went away, such as the child tax credit when a child turns 17.
- The deduction or brackets changed. Brackets and the standard deduction are adjusted every year.
Updated on October 8, 2026